The economic plans proposed by Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are significantly different. The candidates have different views on the size and role of government and business, and have proposed tax policies which reflect those views.
Trump's plan would significantly lower personal and business taxes for everyone, while Clinton's plan would increase taxes on higher-income individuals and lower taxes on lower- and middle-income taxpayers and small businesses. Trump would eliminate estate taxes while Clinton would increase them. Trump would decrease the federal bureaucracy and while Clinton would increase it.
The Tax Foundation analyzed the impacts of the two opposing tax plans using a proprietary neoclassical model called the Taxes and Growth (TAG) model. Because of ambiguity of the Trump plan, regarding whether unincorporated businesses pay taxes at the corporate rate or individual rate, projections for the Trump plan are given in ranges.
The dynamic revenue estimates allow tax revenues to change because of economic growth; static estimates do not. According to the Tax Foundation:
- 10-Year GDP Growth: Clinton -2.6 percent, Trump 6.9 to 8.2 percent
- 10-Year Capital Investment Growth: Clinton -7.0 percent, Trump 20.1 to 23.9 percent
- 10-Year Wage Growth: Clinton -2.1 percent, Trump 5.4 to 6.3 percent;
- Added Jobs (millions): Clinton -0.697, Trump 1.807 to 2.155
- 10-Year Static Revenue Estimate (billions): Clinton $1,427, Trump -$4,368 to -$5,906
- 10-Year Dynamic Revenue Estimate (billions): Clinton $663, Trump -$2,640 to-$3,932.
According to Tax Foundation analysis of the two plans, Trump's tax plan will result in more economic growth (higher GDP), higher capital investment, higher wages and more jobs. Clinton's plan will result in larger tax revenues.
Neither candidate has adequately addressed federal spending. Deficits and the national debt are critical issues that will impact current and future generations. Either the government will get its financial house in order, or the markets will provide the discipline. Proactive policy would be preferred.
Obviously, this election is about more than proposed tax policies; a clash of world views is apparent. Stark differences exist with respect to potential Supreme Court nominations, religious freedom, gun rights, immigration, trade, defense spending, law and order, abortion, Obamacare and a host of other issues. The results of this election will impact the future of the United States, and possibly the world, for decades.
As Christians, we have a responsibility to pray, become informed, analyze the alternatives from a Christian worldview, seek His guidance and vote. Regardless of who wins the election, God is still sovereign. He is still in control. He is still on the throne.
Sons and daughters of the kingdom can be blessed and fruitful regardless of circumstances. We need to look at this election from a heavenly perspective. But we have an obligation to seek and promote His candidates and issues in all elections. May the God of all wisdom and knowledge guide you in this election which will impact the generations.
"If My people, who are called by My name, will humble themselves and pray, and seek My face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and will heal their land" (2 Chr. 7:14, MEV).
"Therefore I exhort first of all that you make supplications, prayers, intercessions, and thanksgivings for everyone, for kings and for all who are in authority, that we may lead a quiet and peaceful life in all godliness and honesty, for this is good and acceptable in the sight of God our Savior" (1 Tim. 2:1-3, MEV).
Dr. James Russell is a professor of economics and undergraduate chair of the College of Business at Oral Roberts University.
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